The recent revelations of a International Energy Administration whistleblower that the IEA may have distorted key oil projections under intense U.S. pressure is, if true (and whistleblowers rarely come forward to advance their careers), a slow-burning thermonuclear explosion on future global oil production. The Bush administration’s actions in pressuring the IEA to underplay the rate of decline from existing oil fields while overplaying the chances of finding new reserves have the potential to throw governments’ long-term planning into chaos.

Whatever the reality, rising long term global demands seem certain to outstrip production in the next decade, especially given the high and rising costs of developing new super-fields such as Kazakhstan’s offshore Kashagan and Brazil’s southern Atlantic Jupiter and Carioca fields, which will require billions in investments before their first barrels of oil are produced.

In such a scenario, additives and substitutes such as biofuels will play an ever-increasing role by stretching beleaguered production quotas. As market forces and rising prices drive this technology to the forefront, one of the richest potential production areas has been totally overlooked by investors up to now – Central Asia. Formerly the USSR’s cotton “plantation,” the region is poised to become a major player in the production of biofuels if sufficient foreign investment can be procured. Unlike Brazil, where biofuel is manufactured largely from sugarcane, or the United States, where it is primarily distilled from corn, Central Asia’s ace resource is an indigenous plant, Camelina sativa.

Of the former Soviet Caucasian and Central Asian republics, those clustered around the shores of the Caspian, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have seen their economies boom because of record-high energy prices, while Turkmenistan is waiting in the wings as a rising producer of natural gas.

Farther to the east, in Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, geographical isolation and relatively scant hydrocarbon resources relative to their Western Caspian neighbors have largely inhibited their ability to cash in on rising global energy demands up to now. Mountainous Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan remain largely dependent for their electrical needs on their Soviet-era hydroelectric infrastructure, but their heightened need to generate winter electricity has led to autumnal and winter water discharges, in turn severely impacting the agriculture of their western downstream neighbors Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.

What these three downstream countries do have however is a Soviet-era legacy of agricultural production, which in Uzbekistan’s and Turkmenistan case was largely directed towards cotton production, while Kazakhstan, beginning in the 1950s with Khrushchev’s “Virgin Lands” programs, has become a major producer of wheat. Based on my discussions with Central Asian government officials, given the thirsty demands of cotton monoculture, foreign proposals to diversify agrarian production towards biofuel would have great appeal in Astana, Ashgabat and Tashkent and to a lesser extent Astana for those hardy investors willing to bet on the future, especially as a plant indigenous to the region has already proven itself in trials.

Known in the West as false flax, wild flax, linseed dodder, German sesame and Siberian oilseed, camelina is attracting increased scientific interest for its oleaginous qualities, with several European and American companies already investigating how to produce it in commercial quantities for biofuel. In January Japan Airlines undertook a historic test flight using camelina-based bio-jet fuel, becoming the first Asian carrier to experiment with flying on fuel derived from sustainable feedstocks during a one-hour demonstration flight from Tokyo’s Haneda Airport. The test was the culmination of a 12-month evaluation of camelina’s operational performance capability and potential commercial viability.

As an alternative energy source, camelina has much to recommend it. It has a high oil content low in saturated fat. In contrast to Central Asia’s thirsty “king cotton,” camelina is drought-resistant and immune to spring freezing, requires less fertilizer and herbicides, and can be used as a rotation crop with wheat, which would make it of particular interest in Kazakhstan, now Central Asia’s major wheat exporter. Another bonus of camelina is its tolerance of poorer, less fertile conditions. An acre sown with camelina can produce up to 100 gallons of oil and when planted in rotation with wheat, camelina can increase wheat production by 15 percent. A ton (1000 kg) of camelina will contain 350 kg of oil, of which pressing can extract 250 kg. Nothing in camelina production is wasted as after processing, the plant’s debris can be used for livestock silage. Camelina silage has a particularly attractive concentration of omega-3 fatty acids that make it a particularly fine livestock feed candidate that is just now gaining recognition in the U.S. and Canada. Camelina is fast growing, produces its own natural herbicide (allelopathy) and competes well against weeds when an even crop is established. According to Britain’s Bangor University’s Centre for Alternative Land Use, “Camelina could be an ideal low-input crop suitable for bio-diesel production, due to its lower requirements for nitrogen fertilizer than oilseed rape.”

Camelina, a branch of the mustard family, is indigenous to both Europe and Central Asia and hardly a new crop on the scene: archaeological evidence indicates it has been cultivated in Europe for at least three millennia to produce both vegetable oil and animal fodder.

Field trials of production in Montana, currently the center of U.S. camelina research, showed a wide range of results of 330-1,700 lbs of seed per acre, with oil content varying between 29 and 40%. Optimal seeding rates have been determined to be in the 6-8 lb per acre range, as the seeds’ small size of 400,000 seeds per lb can create problems in germination to achieve an optimal plant density of around 9 plants per sq. ft.

Camelina’s potential could allow Uzbekistan to begin breaking out of its most dolorous legacy, the imposition of a cotton monoculture that has warped the country’s attempts at agrarian reform since achieving independence in 1991. Beginning in the late 19th century, the Russian government determined that Central Asia would become its cotton plantation to feed Moscow’s growing textile industry. The process was accelerated under the Soviets. While Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan were also ordered by Moscow to sow cotton, Uzbekistan in particular was singled out to produce “white gold.”

By the end of the 1930s the Soviet Union had become self-sufficient in cotton; five decades later it had become a major exporter of cotton, producing more than one-fifth of the world’s production, concentrated in Uzbekistan, which produced 70 percent of the Soviet Union’s output.

Try as it might to diversify, in the absence of alternatives Tashkent remains wedded to cotton, producing about 3.6 million tons annually, which brings in more than $1 billion while constituting approximately 60 percent of the country’s hard currency income.

Beginning in the mid-1960s the Soviet government’s directives for Central Asian cotton production largely bankrupted the region’s scarcest resource, water. Cotton uses about 3.5 acre feet of water per acre of plants, leading Soviet planners to divert ever-increasing volumes of water from the region’s two primary rivers, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya, into inefficient irrigation canals, resulting in the dramatic shrinkage of the rivers’ final destination, the Aral Sea. The Aral, once the world’s fourth-largest inland sea with an area of 26,000 square miles, has shrunk to one-quarter its original size in one of the 20th century’s worst ecological disasters.

And now, the dollars and cents. Dr. Bill Schillinger at Washington State University recently described camelina’s business model to Capital Press as: “At 1,400 pounds per acre at 16 cents a pound, camelina would bring in $224 per acre; 28-bushel white wheat at $8.23 per bushel would garner $230.”

Central Asia has the land, the farms, the irrigation infrastructure and a modest wage scale in comparison to America or Europe – all that’s missing is the foreign investment. U.S. investors have the cash and access to the expertise of America’s land grant universities. What is certain is that biofuel’s market share will grow over time; less certain is who will reap the benefits of establishing it as a viable concern in Central Asia.

If the recent past is anything to go by it is unlikely to be American and European investors, fixated as they are on Caspian oil and gas.

But while the Japanese flight experiments indicate Asian interest, American investors have the academic expertise, if they are willing to follow the Silk Road into developing a new market. Certainly anything that lessens water usage and pesticides, diversifies crop production and improves the lot of their agrarian population will receive most careful consideration from Central Asia’s governments, and farming and vegetable oil processing plants are not only much cheaper than pipelines, they can be built more quickly.

And jatropha’s biofuel potential? Another story for another time.

This article was submitted by www.OilPrice.com who focus on Fossil Fuels, Alternative Energy, Metals, Oil Prices and Geopolitics. To find out more visit their website at: http://www.oilprice.com

While many Western investors remain fixated on somehow acquiring a slice of Turkmenistan’s natural gas riches, despite a recent scandal over the country’s actual reserves, there is another country further east whose energy and mineralogical reserves have been overlooked – Uzbekistan.

While a number of factors are responsible for this oversight, including relative geographical isolation (Uzbekistan, along with Liechtenstein, is one of the world’s doubly landlocked nations, requiring crossing two other nations to gain access to the oceans), which currently limits energy exports available for the global market, there are a number of pluses that the country has for investors willing to “think outside the box.”

With a population of 27 million, Uzbekistan is Central Asia’s most populous and dominant power. A conservative fiscal policy since 1991, including inconvertibility of the national currency, the som, has shielded its citizens from the hyperinflation that ravaged other former Soviet republics, but the policy previously diminished potential foreign investment.

Since the global recession that began a year ago, however, Uzbekistan’s fiscal conservatism, previously dismissed by the foreign investment community, has looked more and more like a pragmatic policy that isolated the country from the worst aspects of the recession in stark contrast to other post-Soviet states that fervently embraced free market capitalism like Lithuania, whose economy contracted 18.1% this year and is expected to shrink further by 3.9% in 2010. In a move certain to be welcomed by foreign investor Uzbekistan is slowly moving towards making its currency convertible but whenever it happens, for the present the country offers a fiscal stability unmatched by many of its more free-market neighbors.

And now, the good news about the country’s resources. In 2006 Uzbekistan’s natural gas reserves were estimated at 1.798 trillion cubic meters (tcm). During the Soviet era Uzbekistan was the USSR’s third-largest producer of natural gas, accounting for more than 10% of the Soviet Union’s production, trailing only Russia and Turkmenistan. In 1992, the country’s first year of independence, Uzbekistan produced 42.8 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas. Uzbekistan currently produces 60 bcm of natural gas annually, an amount nearly equal to Turkmenistan’s production. Uzbekistan’s reserves are primarily concentrated in Qashqadaryo province and near Bukhara in the country’s south-central region. During the 1970s Uzbekistan’s largest natural gas deposit at Boyangora-Gadzhak was discovered in Surkhandaryia province north of the Afghan border.

Unlike its energy-rich neighbors to the West, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, nearly 80 percent of Uzbekistan’s production, about 48.4 bcm, is currently reserved for domestic use at heavily subsidized rates. Of the remaining 12 bcm of natural gas that Uzbekistan exports, more than half currently goes to Russia, with the remainder to neighboring Central Asian states.

Under Uzbekistan’s fiercely patriotic President Islam Karimov relations with Europe’s favorite bête noire, Russia’s state-owned gas firm Gazprom, have been subject to fierce negotiations to win an equitable price for the country’s exports. Like other former Soviet republics, the Uzbek government chafed under Gazprom’s “buy cheap, sell dear” policies and in early December 2008 scored a significant negotiating success by getting an agreement that in 2009 Gazprom would pay $305 per thousand cubic meters (tcm). To put the accomplishment in perspective, Uzbekistan’s state gas company Uzbekneftegaz sold gas to Gazprom for $130 per tcm in the first half of 2008, which then rose to $160 in the second half of 2008.

Those betting on the eventual pacification of Afghanistan and the subsequent pipelines that would crisscross the country to deliver Central Asian gas to the massive Pakistani and Indian markets would also do well to take note of Uzbekistan’s persistent, low key policies over more than a decade attempting to bring peace to its hapless southern neighbor. The initiatives put forward by Uzbek President Islom Karimov during the NATO summit in Bucharest in April 2008 take on heightened importance as one of the few foreign policy ideas offering some hope to quelling Afghanistan’s three decades of turmoil. The text of Karimov’s address is at http://www.jahonnews.uz/eng/sections/politics/address_by_president_of_the_republic_of_uzbekistan_he_mr_islam_karimov.mgr.

Nearly completely overshadowed by the Bush administration’s relentless efforts to have Georgia and Ukraine join the alliance, Karimov proposed that the UN’s Afghanistan “6 plus 2″ assembly, established in 1999, be revived by expanding it into a “6 plus 3″ ensemble by including NATO because of its anti-terrorist operations in Afghanistan among the “six” members Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Pakistan, China and Iran and the “two,” the United States and Russia.

Noting that that it is impossible to solve Afghanistan’s problems without the direct involvement of neighboring countries, which have felt the destructive impact of the Afghan crisis for more than 30 years, as Afghanistan’s problems are now of global nature, Karimov told his audience in Bucharest that their resolution must also be global, with the participation of members of the international coalition that comprise NATO’s International Security Assistance Force (ISAF). Karimov concluded by noting that the current situation in Afghanistan precludes a purely military solution and that while it is possible to continue increasing the foreign military presence there, without a clear model of national reconciliation it will be impossible to end the conflict.

Needless to say, one of the benefits of peace and the aforementioned pipelines for Uzbekistan would be that it could export its surplus gas through Afghanistan to southern Asian markets for a higher price than it receives at home or Gazprom’s miserly accountants. Acting on Tashkent’s belief that economic assistance is of greater utility than military operations, Uzbekistan has become involved in a host of reconstruction projects in Afghanistan, including railways, power generation, mining, agriculture, irrigation, education and the exchange of specialists as well as providing its neighbor with construction materials, metals, fertilizer, food and other goods. Uzbek companies and engineers have built 11 bridges in the Mazar-e-Sharif-Kabul area and are finishing the construction of a 275-mile high-voltage line capable of transmitting 150 megawatts from Termez to Kabul across some of the world’s most mountainous terrain, which when it becomes fully operational next month, will provide power and light not only to the capital but the country’s five northern provinces.

For now, Uzbekistan remains largely a transit country rather than a net energy exporter in its own right. But the fiercely independent nationalist policy that Tashkent has followed since 1991 indicates that any company whose policies most benefit the country will have an inside track, and as the old saying goes, “fortune favors the bold.” Chinese, Malaysian, Russian and South Korean companies have already begun investing in Uzbekistan’s energy infrastructure – what do they seemingly know that American and European companies do not?

This article was written by John C.K. Daly for OilPrice.com – Who offer free information and analysis on Energy and Commodities. The site has sections devoted to Fossil Fuels, Alternative Energy, Metals, Oil prices and Geopolitics. To find out more visit their website at: http://www.oilprice.com

What do I mean by thin air? So far the NASDAQ is the only index to make it past the 50% Fibonacci retracement levels as measured from the highs seen in 2007 and the lows that were made in March of this year.

Both the Dow and the S&P 500 have rallied strongly from their March lows but have not made it over the 50% retracement level.

Many professional traders – myself included – are looking at the NASDAQ’s Fibonacci retracement as it represents a potentially key turning point for this year’s market.

While not all the pieces are in place to go short or get out of long positions, one of the first clues is being put in place today by the Japanese candlestick charts.

In my new video, I share with you the NASDAQ retracement levels, as well as one of the key components that could lead to a potential reversal to the downside.

As always, our videos are free to watch and there is no need to register. If you have any comments on this video we encourage you to make them on our Trader’s Blog.

Enjoy the video, all the best.

This has been another rough week on the stock market as it is the 2^nd week in a row where stock markets end-up in the red zone. Pushed by their emotion from the previous week, investors tumbled under the pressure when the World Bank issued its concerns towards the current global recession.

US Stock Market

Discouraged, investors received “bad” news this week. The American consumers are now gathering their pennies and keeping them for themselves! Hence, the American saving rate surged to 6.9% in May compared to 5.6% in the previous month. This is a record high for the past 15 years!

Since Americans are paying down their debts and saving their money instead of buying more goods, we are in right to believe that they may not become the power that will push the economy out of this recession. Therefore, we may have to look on the Eastern side of the globe for an economic saviour.

Canadian Stock Market

The Canadian Stock market was hit by unexpectedly bad results from RIM and Potash a couple of weeks ago. Potash keeps deceiving as it shows lower sales expectation at a lower price. It seems that China and Brazil massive investment in R&D is giving its fruits.

Resources, currencies and others…

The oil barrel stayed relatively stable and got close to the psychological bar of $70. The war in Nigeria should help the barrel maintain this level for a few weeks. Speculators are ready for actions!

While US dollar gained a few cents against the Canadian dollar, we still have some concerns. The Central Bank of China actually requested alternative money to the American dollar. It reinstated its wishes to have another reference for international transactions. Therefore, we expect the US dollar continue to tumble compared to other currencies.

US Stock Market

There were a few events on the US stock market last week. The most important is probably the continuation of GM’s nightmare as it is presently splitting the company in two parts (the good one with Chevy, Cadillac, GM and the evil one with Hummer, Saab, Saturn et the deceased Pontiac). Rumors have already been heard about a Chinese company buying Hummer and it should be done by the end of the year. The US Government is injecting 50 billions in this “project” in order to keep as many jobs as possible. We all know that the closing of the biggest carmaker would have an awful impact on the fragile economy. However, stock markets had already predicted the event as they didn’t budge upon the official announcement.

In order to make sure that banks are still giving out loans while paying back the taxpayer bailout, the Fed required a higher ratio of capital for each of them. Despite the fact that banks went through their stress test about a month ago, the Fed want to make sure banks keep doing their primary business; giving loans and providing credit to the US citizens.

Recent job loss stats were welcome with “only” 345,000 job loss in May compared to 520 000 anticipated by financial analysts.

In the end, the Dow jonest went up by 3.09%, the S&P 500 by 2.28% and the Nasdaq by 4.23%.

Canadian Stock Market

Directly related to GM, Magna (a auto part maker) loss 10% of its value on the market due to the bankruptcy of the giant carmaker.

Energy sectors and materials saved once again the Canadian market as the American recession seems under control and is losing its strengths. We all hope to see the light at the end of the tunnel!

Canadian market went up by 1.92%.

Resources, currencies and others…

Next week, we will have to look after the BRIC who will discuss their expansion strategies. As they already started to do so, one of the point of discussion will be the fact that they are slowly leaving the American dollar in order to prioritize their local currency.

Less speculation on the oil barrel as it is “stable” around $68. During the week, we even saw it reached $70 for a short period of time. Natural gas dropped by 10% as investors prefer to jump in the oil barrel train.

It seems that the great results from Citigroup and Wells Fargo from last week weren’t enough to convince investors that financials were solid again. In fact, we just hit a wall while crossing a six-week old rally on the US stock market (seven week on the TSX).

All markets were down this afternoon, the Canadian dollar and the crude oil barrel was following the parade. May crude oil contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange almost lose $5 and we are now far away from the “stable price” of $50 a barrel.

The price of gold, which has been decreasing as people started to brave the market and leave the precious metal, increased in order to comfort investor’s anxiety about banks.

The truth is that many concerns remain unresolved concerning toxic assets and how Washington will get hurt by injecting over $700 billions in financials. Even though Bank of America said it earned more than expected, they still put $13.4 billions to cover losses from souring debts. It seems that financial problems may not be over yet.

As a matter of fact, nothing was justifying such rally for the past month in a half. Several stocks have gone up (especially in the financial and natural resources sector) for no real reason.

Several good stocks went down today such as Timminco, MI developments, Eli Lilly, Pepsi Co and Hasbro were part of the bigger losers during this red Monday.

On the other side, it may seem normal to get some pullback on a market that soared 25% in March. We will have to wait to see what is going to happen in the upcoming days to know if we are going back in the market rally or this was simply a market correction during a bear market. My bet is that we are going back into the rally!

For more information and trend analysis on the above mentioned stocks, please visit trend analysis (it’s free!)

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